Episode 53: The Killing Moon

This week bore witness to an extraordinary lunar display, the “super flower blood moon.” It simultaneously combined three lunar phenomena: a supermoon, meaning the moon appears up to 14% bigger and 30% brighter in the sky as its elliptical orbit brings it closest to Earth; a total lunar eclipse, when the moon passes entirely within Earth’s shadow; and a blood moon, when light filtered through Earth’s atmosphere during an eclipse turns our natural satellite a rusty, reddish hue. The moon’s red hue is caused by red-orange light refracted through Earth’s atmosphere and can appear even redder if there are more clouds or dust in Earth’s atmosphere. 

The uncommon occurrence of the super flower blood moon, combined with the 15th mass shooting this year, while coinciding with Memorial Day weekend to honor those who have fallen in battle, makes it more appropriately a  killing moon. 

Memorial Day

Memorial Day is an American holiday, observed on the last Monday of May, honoring the men and women who died while serving in the US military. Originally known as Decoration Day, it started informally in the years following the Civil War, and in 1966 the federal government declared Waterloo, New York, the official birthplace of Memorial Day and made it an official national holiday in 1971. 

Memorial Day originally honored only those lost while fighting in the Civil War. It evolved to commemorate American military personnel who died in all wars, including World War I, World War II, The Vietnam War, The Korean War, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Americans typically observe Memorial Day by visiting cemeteries and memorials. Some people wear a red poppy in remembrance of those fallen in battle—a tradition that began with a  World War I poem  by a brigade surgeon who was struck by the sight of the red flowers growing on a ravaged battlefield. The vast majority of people celebrate the holiday as the start of summer and take the long weekend to travel to favorite destinations and enjoy cookouts and time with friends and family. 

Americans are expected to travel this weekend the most since the pandemic started. This weekend Delta Airlines reported 3 million bookings between Thursday and Sunday, and that figure was 300,000 the same weekend last year. In total, 37 million people are expected to fly for the holiday weekend, which is up 60% from 2020. Top destinations include Jackson Hole, Sun Valley, Vail, Las Vegas, Miami, and Orlando. More than 34 million people will hit the roads for their travel plans. Expect heavy traffic. In Atlanta, congestion is expected to be 3x usual traffic and New York 5.4x usual traffic. And traveling will be more expensive this year than last. Gas prices have soared. According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of gas is $3.04, and last year the cost $1.96. 

Amidst the fun and folly this weekend, it’s important to remember the cost of war. Please take a moment to acknowledge the sacrifice made by those who died in battle. These aren’t just statistics but lives, and these people paid the ultimate price to ensure our freedom and liberty. Below is a  list of casualties  from each major American war, ranked by lives lost: 

COVID

Flip Flop from the Top

Two days ago, left-leaning CNN and right-leaning Fox News reported that the Biden State Department ended an inquiry into the origins of the COVID pandemic. Here is a link to the article on  CNN  and the one on  Fox News. Former President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo launched the original inquiry to determine if the coronavirus leaked out of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Multiple media outlets cited and confirmed that the Biden administration terminated the investigation on Wednesday. However, later that day,  CNN  and  Fox News  reported the opposite storyline—Biden tasked the intelligence community to report COVID origins in 90 days. These contradicting reports on the same day make CNN, Fox News, and the Biden Administration look silly. So what happened? 

It's impossible to know what happened behind the scenes. My guess is the Biden administration felt heat about ending the inquiry, especially after the  Wall Street Journal published an article  that several researchers at China's Wuhan Institute fell ill with flu-like symptoms in November 2019 and had to be hospitalized. The story offered a new detail that fueled public pressure on Biden to delve deeper into the virus's origin. 

Lab-Origin Theory 

The origin of the coronavirus remains unclear. However, suddenly, talk of the Wuhan-lab-leak theory as the origin of coronavirus seems to be everywhere. Two prevailing theories exist for the origin of the virus: 1) the virus originated from an animal and jumped from animal to human, possibly at a "wet market" in Wuhan, China 2) the virus accidentally leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China. The Washington Post put together a  timeline  that shows the series of events that have ignited the lab-origin theory.

Many scientists have long believed that the most likely explanation behind coronavirus is that it jumped from an animal to a person. Animal to human transmission is a typical origin story for viruses. But scientists are increasingly pointing to the belief that the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Two weeks ago,  18 scientists wrote a letter  to the journal Science calling for a new investigation and describing both animal-to-human and lab-leak theory as "viable." And three scientists who last year dismissed the lab-leak explanation as a conspiracy theory have  told the Wall Street Journal  that they now consider it plausible. Chinese officials have refused to allow an independent investigation into the lab and have failed to explain some inconsistencies in the animal-to-human hypothesis. As recent as this week, the Chinese government announced they would not participate in additional investigations by the World Health Organization. The US is attempting to walk a careful line between pressuring Beijing to cooperate and demonstrating it its absence, the US will intensify its own investigation. 

The momentum behind the lab-origin theory is vindication to many who have voiced this theory and received condemnation and been accused of conspiracy theory madness. Almost 15 months ago, two Chinese researchers  wrote a paper published in Lancet  concluding that the virus "probably originated from a lab in Wuhan." Alina Chan, a molecular biologist, affiliated with Harvard and M.I.T., made similar arguments. Former C.D.C. Director Dr. Robert Redfield, a world-renown virologist, created a stir several months ago when he  disclosed in a CNN interview  that the animal-to-human theory didn't make sense given the spread of infection in humans. His comments were unambiguous, "I don't believe this virus somehow came from a bat to a human; it just doesn't make biological sense." He continued by saying that the most likely etiology is the virus escaped from a lab. Researchers sometimes modify viruses to understand and treat them, and it's not unusual for respiratory pathogens to infect lab workers. 

Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas noted early on in the pandemic the location of the Wuhan Institute of Virology as a likely point of origin. And, of course, former President Donald Trump made headlines by repeatedly calling it the "China Virus," suggesting that intelligence reports pointed to the lab but he failed to produce tangible evidence. And some health officials were wary of Trump’s motives, along with his penchant for lying, arguing that his interest in the origins of the pandemic was either to deflect blame from his administration’s handling of it or to punish China. The World Health Organization dismissed the lab-leak theory as implausible. And infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci testified this week before Congress that the most likely scenario is an infected animal but confessed it's challenging to ascertain the origin, noting scientists still don't know the source of ebola. 

What's at Stake?

On the one hand, the source of the virus is irrelevant as it doesn't change the fact that more than 3 million people are dead due to coronavirus. On the other hand, it goes to accountability. The answer, especially if China is guilty of creating and then covering up the origin of the virus that led to the worst global health crisis this century, has enormous geopolitical consequences. For starters, if guilty, China should bear the burden of footing the bill to vaccinate the world as quickly as possible and offer some form of reparation to countries and victims. Secondly, China should open its labs to WHO and other health organizations to study the virus and develop ongoing treatments. Lastly, new safety protocols must be implemented for all labs that work with viruses to ensure a similar outbreak doesn't happen again. 

Vaccine Progress

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine is  safe and effective in children  as young as 12. The company plans to apply to the FDA for authorization to administer the vaccine to 12-to-17-year-olds in June. Moderna’s clinical trials included 3,732 children between 12 and 17, none of whom developed symptomatic COVID-19 after receiving two doses. As of May 18,  600,000 children  between 12 and 17 had received the first dose of the Pfizer shot. Children generally had milder COVID-19 symptoms than adults, though some developed a severe condition called Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) after an initial coronavirus infection. A  new study  suggests that most children will overcome the most severe MIS-C symptoms within about six months, though some may have lingering muscle weakness after that.

More than half of US adults are fully vaccinated against COVID, though inoculation rates vary widely around the country. States leading the race to get their populations vaccinated are in the northeast—Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Vermont. States such as Mississippi and Alabama trail the pack with less than 30%. This  site  offers a great tool to estimate when your state might reach what is considered “herd immunity” of 70% - 85% vaccination. Spoiler alert: the forecast for Tennessee is June 2022 and California October 2021. 

MASS SHOOTING

Two weeks ago, NPR reported that just 18 weeks into 2021, the US had experienced  15 mass shootings  that killed almost 200 people. That averages out to about ten a week. And we can add another to the list this week. Samuel Cassidy, 57,  shot nine people  at the rail yard in San Jose, CA, before turning the gun on himself. Police dogs discovered multiple explosive devices on the railyard property. His ex-wife said he was known to have a temper and talked about killing people at work over a decade ago. 

US POLITICS 

Congresswoman Majorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) continued her streak of public blunders this week. During an  interview on a conservative podcast , Greene compared House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to continue to require members of the House to wear masks on the chamber floor to steps the Nazis took to control the Jewish population during the Holocaust. Greene, in a conversation with the Christian Broadcasting Network’s David Brody “The Water Cooler,” attacked Pelosi and accused her of being a hypocrite for asking GOP members to prove they have all been vaccinated before allowing members to be in the House chamber without a mask: “You know, we can look back at a time in history where people were told to wear a gold star, and they were treated like second class citizens, so much so that they were put in trains and taken to gas chambers in Nazi Germany,” Greene said. House Republican leaders condemned her remarks amid a wave of criticism from Republican and conservative critics and Jewish groups. 

But the blunders didn’t stop there. Greene attempted what she called her “ really bad Mexican accent ” during a speech last night in Dalton, Georgia. It’s probably the first time that Greene told the truth on any matter. It was, indeed, a bad impersonation. Greene has been in hot water since being elected. The House voted to strip Greene of her  committee assignments  earlier this year, following the resurfacing of old social media posts where she shared conspiracy theories questioning the reality of 9/11 and some school shootings. Greene said on the House floor that she regretted those comments. It’s not clear whether Greene expressed remorse in her Mexican accent. 

ECONOMY

US weekly  unemployment claims were 406,000 , their lowest since the onset of the pandemic and down from 444,000 the week prior. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a total of 425,000. Accordingly, at least  24 states  have said they will stop paying Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation of $300 per week beginning in June. The employment rate now stands at 6.1%. 

Amazon continued its meteoric expansion by acquiring MGM in a deal worth $8.5 billion. The pick-up is Amazon’s second-largest acquisition after Whole Foods. MGM offers Amazon a blockbuster content catalog, featuring franchises such as  James Bond  and  Rocky , as well as award-winning series such as  The Handmaid’s Tale ,  Fargo , and  Vikings , that could soon port over to Amazon Prime Video. For now, most streaming services continue to post impressive growth numbers, including Disney+, Discovery+, and Paramount+, but the market is getting crowded and consumer bandwidth finite, especially post-pandemic. And the consolidation of services is inevitable and already started, with  AT&T this month spinning off its entertainment division , WarnerMedia (CNN, HBO, and Warner Bros.). AT&T acquired WarnerMedia just  three years ago for $85 billion  and is now merging it with Discovery to create a $150+ billion media company spanning news, sports, film, scripted and unscripted programming. AT&T shareholders will have a majority stake (71%), and Discovery CEO David Zaslav will lead the new company, and his current shareholders own the remaining 29%. If approved by regulators, the deal effectively reverses AT&T’s years-long plan to combine content and distribution in a vertically integrated company. (As for WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar, the former head of Hulu and previous Amazon employee, the  NYT reported  that Kilar wasn’t told about the deal until recently and has hired a legal team to negotiate his exit.) As AT&T backs away from its expansion plans to focus on core operations, and history reminds us of the disastrous $165 billion AOL/Time Warner merger, one can’t help but wonder if this is Amazon’s “jump the shark” moment.

OTHER

A Massachusetts woman who accidentally tossed out a $1 million lottery ticket eventually  collected her winnings  thanks to the kindness and honesty of the owners of the store where she bought it.

I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:

America hasn’t lost its demographic advantage

Women: A century of change

Don’t be against Beijing’s efforts to smother Bitcoin

If you thought working from home was messy, here comes hybrid work

II. Stats that made me go WOW!

-  San Francisco has a significant shoplifting problem. Walgreens says that thefts at its locations in SF were 4x the chain’s  national average ; it’s had to close 17 stores in the area mainly because of the shoplifting epidemic. 

- Although it has 5.4 million active listings, that will not be enough for what Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky describes as a “once-in-a-century travel rebound.” In Q1, Airbnb  reported  64+ million booked nights and experiences, up 13% annually. A quarter of trips were long-term stays (28 days or more). 

- The Dow Jones turned 125 years old this week. The index of 12 smokestack companies closed that first trading day, May 26, 1896, at 40.94. It included General Electric Co. and long-forgotten names like American Cotton Oil and Distilling & Cattle Feeding. The  Dow index  closed today at 34,529. 

III. Name that Tune! 

As I write this email, I am listening to “The Killing Moon” by Echo and the Bunnymen. 

Echo and the Bunnymen are a post-punk, new wave band formed in Liverpool in 1978. Lead guitarist, Will Sergeant, is the only surviving member of the band, with Ian McCulloch leaving the group in the late 80s and Les Pattinson dying in a motorcycle accident. According to Sergeant, he grew up in Liverpool in the 1960s and 70s when skinheads, football violence, and fear of just about everything was the natural order of things. A young Sergeant found the emerging punk scene, and it offered him a shimmer of hope amidst a crumbling city still reeling from the destruction of World War 2. 

The band’s biggest hits are “Lips like Sugar,” “Bring on the Dancing Horses,” and “The Killing Moon.” The latter was written by original vocalist Ian McCulloch and released in 1984 on the album  Ocean Rain. When McCulloch was asked what he thinks is the greatest song of all time, his response is unequivocal—his own, “The Killing Moon.” He claims, “no one else has a song like The Killing Moon, not even Bowie.” “It’s more than just a song; it’s about everything in life.” That’s quite a statement, but the riffs are undeniably seductive and catchy and allegedly based on David Bowie’s “Space Oddity,” played backward. 

Alas, McCulloch offers his only form of modesty by saying that he partially credits God for the song. McCulloch woke one morning to find the words’ Fate, up against your will. Through the thick and thin. He will wait until you give yourself to him.’ lodged in his head. So he grabbed a guitar and starting working out the rest. According to McCulloch, that music magic hadn’t happened before or since. 

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