Episode 59: Here I Go Again

If coronavirus had a voice, she’d say,  here I go again. And just like that, COVID is front and center in the news. The Delta variant is dominant in the US, prompting a surge of COVID in 45 states. Cases rose 47% last week, the biggest increase since April 2020. The CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said COVID is “becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated.” She said 97% of the current COVID hospitalizations nationwide are among people who are not fully vaccinated. This statement seems at odds with the decision of Los Angeles County to reimplement a mask mandate indoors, regardless if people are vaccinated. At this point, 185 million people have received at least one dose of vaccine, roughly 65% of the population age 12 and older. However, health experts worry that the vaccination rate is not high enough to stop the spread of the Delta variant. And in states like Tennessee, where the (fully) vaccinated rate is only 38%, the rise in Delta presents concerns for the start of the school year a few weeks away. 

Some reporters misunderstand and, therefore, misreport whether Delta is more contagious and more severe than earlier versions of the virus. It is highly unusual for a virus variant to be both more contagious and more severe. For example, if a variant is more virulent, it will lead to a rise in cases which will drive up the raw numbers of hospitalizations and death. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more severe. When a variant is more severe, it causes worse symptoms for the average person who gets the virus and leads to a more significant percentage of cases that result in hospitalization or death. Therefore, when “journalists” talk about the variant being “worse” or “more dangerous,” it is imprecise language—and very misleading. Janet Baseman, a University of Washington epidemiologist, said: “I have not seen compelling evidence that the Delta variant is more severe.” Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania said that he did not think Delta required vaccinated parents to behave differently than they did a few weeks ago. An excellent way to understand Delta is to look to England, where the variant has circulated  widely since May , longer than in the US. If Delta were more severe than earlier versions of the virus, the percentage of cases leading to hospitalization or death should be rising. The data shows otherwise. 

This clarification does not mean that the Delta variant is not a problem. Quite the contrary. For unvaccinated older adults, Covid does not need to be additionally severe to be a mortal threat. This variant is more contagious and led to Covid surges across much of the globe, putting those unvaccinated adults at greater risk of contracting it. As a result, vaccination has become even more critical. Brazil, Indonesia, Tunisia, Thailand, and Namibia all have low vaccination rates and currently face severe  coronavirus outbreaks. Sydney, Australia, has been on lockdown since June 26 to slow a spike in Delta variant cases. Tokyo entered a state of emergency this week that will extend through the entire duration of the Olympics, and other parts of eastern Asia also reintroduced social distancing rules. Britain said it would  continue with its plan  to drop nearly all Covid-19 restrictions next week but warned its citizens to keep wearing masks indoors. France will make vaccines  mandatory  for all healthcare workers starting Sept. 15, while regular citizens will need “health passes” to access shops, bars, cinemas, and long-distance trains beginning August. Health passes are obtained through proof of vaccination, previous infection, or a negative test. 

And there is growing talk of a vaccine booster shot. Israel’s Ministry of Health began offering a  third dose  of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine to severely immunocompromised adults. The new program’s goal was to raise antibody levels among immunocompromised citizens, including cancer patients, recipients of liver transplants, and others who have recently exhibited weakened vaccine protection. The Department of Health and Human Services said that fully vaccinated Americans do not need a booster for now. Pfizer still must receive emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for its third dose, and a CDC advisory panel must decide whether and to whom to recommend boosters. That process could take several weeks or months. The discussion of booster shots has also raised concerns about the impact it could have on vaccine hesitancy and questions about the ethics of providing fully vaccinated residents of wealthy countries a third shot when most of the world has yet to receive a single dose. The UN health agency, public health experts, and advocates have warned of a widening global vaccine gap and urged governments to do more to share doses and increase supply.

RACE

More than 30 million people in Britain tuned in to watch England take on Italy on Sunday. In Europe, soccer is more than a sport. It holds traditions, spurs patriotic unity, and can help the economy. But it comes with a few notable drawbacks. In its first major tournament final since 1966, England lost in the penalty shootout. It was a severe blow to the country psyche. However, a deeper blow is the racism that emerged following the match. Angry fans directed their emotion at the Black players that missed their penalty kicks. Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, and Bukayo Saka helped carry England to the Euro Championship final. Now, they've been hit with hundreds of offensive and racist comments flooding social media. Twitter removed 1,000 posts. And it has permanently suspended several accounts. In Manchester, vandals defaced a mural of Rashford. Unfortunately, this behavior is not new among British soccer fans. Throughout the years, fans have thrown bananas peels at Black players and led monkey chants. It's a terrible look for Britain and the sport. 

CLIMATE CHANGE 

Over 50% of the global population lives in cities. Twenty-five mega-cities generate 52% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), according to a  Frontiers study  of 167 cities worldwide. The 25 cities, which cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, are mainly situated in Asian and European countries, but there are also some in the US. They include Handan, Shanghai, and Suzhou (China), Tokyo (Japan), Moscow (Russia), and Istanbul (Turkey). For a list of GHG emissions by city by continent, click  here. Some highlights from the report: 

ECONOMY

Retail sales  rose 0.6% in June  compared to the previous month, partially due to more spending and an increase in inflation. Consumer demand at restaurants, in stores, and online appeared strong. Sales of furniture and business materials dropped as demand for those products was exceptionally high during the pandemic, with people mainly staying at home. Car sales fell by 2% in June as  inventories  are dwindling. The overall increase in June retail sales is 1.3% if auto sales are excluded.

Consumer prices  rose by 5.4% in June  versus the same month last year, the highest 12-month jump since August 2008. Prices also increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from May to June, the most significant one-month increase since June 2008. However, the growth may not be a fire alarm for runaway inflation, given one-third of the rise, according to the Labor Department, was in  used car prices. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991. The 10-year Treasury yield fell after the news, indicating markets weren't too bothered by the number. Some economists argue the uptick in inflation in recent months is due to a mismatch between a vast amount of pent-up demand and a limited supply of goods and services from COVID. Plus, the desire for travel and road trips has also fueled an appetite for used automobiles.

Xmas came early for families with children. As part of the $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus package passed in March, the Biden administration set aside $105 billion to  hike  the child tax credit up to $1,600 per child, and parents started reaping the benefit this week. Almost 90% of the US' 74 million children will qualify for the program. The standard credit increased to $3,600/child under six and $3,000/child between ages 6 and 17, compared to the existing $2,000 per child under 17. After one year, the current expansion will expire, but President Biden asked for a four-year extension in his American Families Plan. Some Democrat lawmakers are seeking to make the credits permanent. Warning label: consult with your CPA as these payments could have  tax implications next year.

I. Below are the articles I found interesting the past week:

The scapegoating machine

How social media has made us all rivals

The Fulbright paradox

Buy, Borrow, Die: How rich Americans live off their paper wealth

Is a graduate degree worth the debt? Check it here

II. Stats that made me go WOW!

- Americans today are less than one lifetime removed from the  system of apartheid. The United States has had only one president who came of age when full racial equality was the law of the land. Eighty-one of the 100 current US senators were born in an era when people could be arrested for marrying across racial lines.

- Border Patrol agents have made  more than a million  arrests at the U.S.-Mexico border so far this year, already higher than any full-year total since at least 2005, according to new Customs and Border Protection figures released today. Agents made more than 178,000 arrests in June, a 3% increase over the prior month.

- According to a McKinsey  report , about 50 percent of the companies researched increased performance during the pandemic, while the rest saw no meaningful change or decreases. These numbers remained true for a variety of measurements--decision speed and quality, individual productivity, team productivity, or other performance metrics. The top performers also had lower variability, meaning that they were more likely to see performance gains across the board and not just for some teams. The most productive even witnessed a 48 percent increase in employees’ job satisfaction, versus a decrease of 9 percent at the worst-performing organizations. 

- Autonomous vehicle startup Aurora  announced  plans yesterday to go public via SPAC at a valuation of $11 billion. In doing so, it’ll become the first major company in this young industry to hit the markets. Aurora is expected to have $2.5 billion in cash at closing. It raised nearly $2 billion from the transaction, including from partners in the industry like Uber, Volvo Group and trucking manufacturer PACCAR. The SPACs founders include Reid Hoffman, who founded LinkedIn, co-founded PayPal, and was one of the earliest investors in Facebook, and Mark Pincus, who founded the social game developer Zynga.

- Jeff Bezos donated  $200 million  to the Smithsonian’s Air and Space Museum. The Smithsonian said $70 million would support museum renovations. The other $130 million would go toward building a new education center at the museum called the Bezos Learning Center. 

III. Name that Tune! 

I am listening to “Here I Go Again” by Whitesnake as I write this newsletter.  

Whitesnake is a hard rock band formed in England in 1978. The group was initially put together as the backing band for singer David Coverdale, who had recently left Deep Purple. Coverdale’s vision was to create a hard rock band that combined elements of R&B and blues with good commercial hooks. Whitesnake’s early influences include Cream, Fleetwood Mac, Jeff Beck, and Jimi Hendrix. However, the band became unfavorably compared to Led Zeppelin in the 1980s, and Coverdale was accused of imitating singer Robert Plant. Coverdale is the only constant band member throughout the group’s history. 

Whitesnake released their eponymous album in 1987, which became their biggest success, selling over eight million copies in the US. “Here I Go Again” was the hit single. The song was written by Coverdale and featured on the 1982 album  Saints & Sinners  and re-recorded in 1987 with a different pace. The re-recorded version landed with listeners and hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100 and number one on the Canadian Singles Chart in 1987. VH1 ranked “Here I Go Again” as number 17 of the 100 Greatest Songs of the 80s, and  Rolling Stone  ranked it 9th among the Top 10 “The Best Hair Metal Songs of All Time.” 

Whitesnake was criticized during their peak for the use of sexual innuendos and double entendres. The 1982 music video for “Here I Go Again” features model Julie “Tawny” Kitaen, who was married to Coverdale from 1989 to 1991. In the video, Tawney’s sex appeal jumps off the screen, lighting up the imagination. The iconic scenes of her dancing on the hood of a Jaguar are forever etched in my teenage mind. I haven’t watched the video in decades, and I was surprised by how innocent it seems in modern times. Give it a watch and judge for yourself! 

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